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Managing risks in the global economy

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Despite some setbacks in early 2014, the recovery is under way in high-income economies and is expected to support growth in developing countries. However, many developing countries are beginning to encounter capacity limits to economic activity. The growth rates needed to achieve the World Bank��s twin goals would require reinvigorated structural reforms tailored to each developing country��s circumstances.


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Growth in developing countries is expected to remain flat at 4.8 percent in 2014. One-off factors (such as the exceptionally cold winter in the United States and the tensions in Ukraine) depressed growth in many countries in early 2014 but are expected to subside. In 2015 and 2016, growth is expected to pick up to about 5.5 percent, broadly in line with its average over the precrisis decade.


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Regional prospects vary. East Asia and Pacific continue to exhibit the strongest growth, though it is expected to remain flat in 2014 at about 7 percent as China rebalances growth toward a more sustainable path. Buoyed by strengthening economies in high-income countries, growth in South Asia is expected to be 5.3 percent in 2014 and should rise further in 2015 and 2016 to around 6 percent, partly as a result of policy reforms. Investments in the resources sector, public infrastructure, and agriculture have helped to sustain growth in Sub-Saharan Africa at 4.7 percent and are expected to push growth above 5 percent in 2015�C16. A divergent recovery is under way in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The weak outlook in key trading partners (in particular, the Russian Federation) is expected to slow growth in Central Asia, while developing Europe will benefit from the gradual recovery under way in the Euro Area. As a result, growth in developing countries in Europe and Central Asia is expected to slow to 2.4 percent in 2014 before strengthening to about 4.0 percent in 2016. Weak growth in the United States in early 2014 dampened growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, but the recovery in high-income countries and steady commodity prices are expected to strengthen growth to 3.5 percent in 2016. Social and political strife continue to hinder activity in much of the Middle East and North Africa, where growth is expected to pick up to 1.9 percent in 2014 (following stagnation in 2013) and rise to 3.5 percent by 2016.


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Short-term risks to the overall outlook have receded. Challenges and risks in highincome countries are increasingly of a medium-term nature, including those related to fiscal sustainability, exits from unconventional monetary policy, a prolonged period of low inflation or deflation risks in the Euro Area, and the need for structural reforms to boost productivity growth. Among developing countries, short-term risks have also become less pressing. This is partly because earlier downside risks over the past year did not generate large upheavals, and partly because the recent economic adjustments have reduced vulnerabilities. In several countries, adjustments in exchange rates, interest rate hikes, and other policy measures since the summer of 2013 have narrowed current account deficits and slowed credit growth.


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Developing countries continue to face various challenges. External financial conditions are expected to tighten as the recovery in high-income countries gains traction. In addition, several developing countries seem limited by the lack of capacity to sustain further growth. Sustained and strong future growth in developing countries therefore rests on domestic efforts to increase productivity and competitiveness while reducing vulnerabilities to external pressures. Such reforms are necessary if developing countries are to achieve the goals of ending poverty and boosting shared prosperity. Rising inequality in many countries is harmful to economic stability and the sustainability of growth, but well-designed policies can reduce inequality without hurting growth.


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